Mortgage rates have now moved above 7%, and I told Forbes that I would not be surprised to see them reach 7.5% or higher by the end of the year.

For buyers and sellers, the headline rate is important, but it is only one part of the decision. Price, monthly costs, liquidity, and long-term plans all need to be considered together, particularly in today’s market. For the full article Forbes

Thank you to Lindsey Crossmier for including my perspective.

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I spoke with Aarthi Swaminathan at MarketWatch about mortgage rates approaching 7% and what that means for buyers and the broader housing market.

While 7% remains an important psychological threshold, buyers have been adjusting to elevated rates for some time. We’re also seeing more interest in adjustable-rate mortgages as buyers look for ways to reduce their initial monthly payments.

My earlier experience in mortgage-backed securities trading, underwriting and mortgage banking continues to inform how I think about interest rates and advise buyers and sellers in today’s market.

Thank you, Aarthi, for including my perspective.

Link to the full story: Marketwatch

September 3, 2026

The cheap-money era is over, and this week the bond market said so in four languages at once.

Japanese ten-year government bonds crossed 3% on Tuesday for the first time since 1996. British ten-year gilts hit 5.25%, the highest since 2008, with the 30-year gilt sitting near 5.9%, a level not seen since the 1990s. German Bunds reached 3.35%, the highest since 2011. And the US ten-year Treasury touched 4.80%, its highest since January 2025, while the 30-year bond climbed back over 5.27%, within shouting distance of levels last seen in 2007.

Stocks noticed. The Nasdaq fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Brent crude pushed past $95 after fresh US strikes on Iran and two tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz. The pound wobbled. The yen has been whipsawed since the joint US–Japan intervention in August, and traders are on alert for another round.

I traded mortgage-backed securities before I sold houses. So let me tell you what this means for anyone who owns, buys, sells or finances real estate, because the headline is not “markets had a bad week.” The headline is that the floor under long-term interest rates just moved up, and it is not coming back down soon.

What actually happened

Government bonds anchor every other interest rate in the world. When a 30-year Treasury yields 5.3%, nobody is going to lend you money on a 30-year mortgage for less than that plus a margin. That margin is running about a point and a half right now, which is why the 30-year fixed sits at roughly 6.9% today and why Mortgage News Daily is running headlines about “new long-term highs.”

For fifteen years, three things kept long-term yields artificially low: central banks buying bonds by the trillion, Japan exporting near-zero rates to the rest of the world, and inflation that stayed asleep. All three are gone.

Japan is the one to watch. For thirty years, Japanese government bonds were the anchor for global fixed income, and Japanese savers were the marginal buyer of everybody else’s debt. With JGBs now paying 3%, that money has a reason to stay home. As TD Securities put it this week, “It’s a genuine regime change.”

Britain has its own problem. Gilt yields are the highest in the G7, and every basis point makes the Treasury’s arithmetic worse ahead of the autumn budget. Bloomberg estimates the surge in borrowing costs has already halved the government’s fiscal headroom. That is the backdrop against which any property tax reform will be judged, and it makes the case for stable, predictable revenue even stronger.

The United States is not innocent here either. Federal debt crossed $40 trillion. Tech companies are issuing bonds at a furious pace to fund AI data centers, competing with the Treasury for the same buyers. And with the Fed and other central banks stepping back, the marginal buyer at Treasury auctions is now a private investor who actually cares about price.

Add a war in the Middle East pushing oil up 6% in a week, and you have inflation expectations rising just as the supply of bonds explodes. Prices fall. Yields rise. That is the whole story.

Why this is not 2022

In 2022 the Fed was raising rates on purpose to fight inflation, and everyone knew the rate cycle would eventually turn. Buyers told themselves “marry the house, date the rate,” and for a while it worked.

This time is different. The Fed under Kevin Warsh is not driving this. The bond market is. Long yields are rising even as the odds of a September 16 rate hike have fallen. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research put it best: the bond market is daring the Fed to hike. When the long end of the curve rises on its own, no central bank cut fixes your mortgage rate.

The implication for real estate is simple and uncomfortable: the 30-year fixed is more likely to spend the next several years in the 6s and 7s than in the 4s and 5s. Plan accordingly.

What it means for buyers

Stop waiting for the rate that is not coming. A buyer who has spent two years on the sidelines waiting for 5% has watched prices rise and rates stay put. The right move is to buy the house you can afford at today’s rate and refinance if the market gives you a gift. If it does not, you still own the house.

Cash is king again, and cash buyers have leverage they have not had since 2008. If you can write a check, write it, and negotiate hard.

For American buyers looking at London, the math is now interesting. Sterling is under pressure, UK sellers are facing serious price-reduction pressure, and gilts at 5.25% are squeezing domestic buyers who need a mortgage. A dollar buyer with cash is walking into a market where the competition just got thinner.

What it means for sellers

Price it right the first time. Every buyer’s monthly payment just went up, so the pool of qualified buyers at any given price just shrank. A house that sits for ninety days is not being “patient.” It is being repriced by the market on your behalf.

This is exactly the environment where the reverse offer works. When buyers are hesitating over financing, a seller who writes the terms and puts a 72-hour clock on them turns hesitation into a decision. I have used it in Washington and I expect to use it in London.

What it means for owners

If you locked in 3% in 2021, you are sitting on the most valuable financial asset you will ever own. Do not give it up lightly. Sellers with a low-rate mortgage should look hard at assumable loans, seller financing and other tools that let the next buyer inherit your rate. That is a real premium, and it should be priced into what you ask.

The bottom line

The bond market has spoken in Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York, and the message is the same in every accent: the cost of long-term money is going up, and the world is going to have to live with it.

Real estate has survived far higher rates than these. Houses sold every day in the 1980s with mortgages in double digits. But every buyer, seller and owner should now assume the rate they see today is roughly the rate they will see for the foreseeable future, and make decisions on that basis rather than on the hope of a return to 2021.

Hope is not a strategy. A signed contract is.

Jim Bell — a former mortgage-backed securities trader, now a Sotheby’s International Realty executive in Washington, DC, and London, and the publisher of Billion Dollar Broker.

The founder of Facebook/Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, and his wife Priscilla Chan have reportedly bought a 19th-century gothic-revival mansion in Ireland, in an off-market deal.

Strancally Castle is set in a 440-acre estate on the River Blackwater in County Waterford. The property is thought to be worth somewhere between €20mn and €30mn, according to the Irish Times, which first reported the sale. But neither the buyers nor the sellers have confirmed a figure.

“Mark and his family are excited to continue caring for this historic home and look forward to spending time in Ireland, where Meta maintains its international headquarters,” confirmed a Meta spokesperson. The company has an international HQ in Dublin.

The estate, on the banks of the Blackwater near Youghal, was sold by Michael Alen-Buckley, a co-founder of the London-based investment firm RAB Capital, and his wife Giancarla, who had owned Strancally for 25 years, restoring it after buying the property in the early 2000s.

“We leave our home of 25 years fondly and are grateful for the opportunity we have been given to save and restore Strancally Castle,” the couple said in a statement. “We are delighted that Mark and his family intend to build on our stewardship by continuing to invest in maintaining and enhancing the property and grounds as their home in a sustainable manner.”

Stunning top to bottom renovation of this charming light filled and spacious 3,200 sq ft. 5 bedroom 4.5 bath Federal in the heart of Georgetown. Every detail has been thoughtfully attended to from the high ceilings, custom finishes, designer lighting, wide plank wood flooring and captivating floorplan. All new electrical, plumbing, all chimneys relined, new roof, new windows, new flooring throughout, all new bathrooms and kitchen. The main level offers a formal extra wide living room with fireplace and alcove, separate dining room, stunning gourmet kitchen opening to a fabulous entertaining patio, and completed with a main level powder room. Upstairs on the second level one is welcomed with an inviting primary suite with fireplace, incredible wardrobe space and elegant primary bathroom. A second bedroom and second full bath complete this level. On the third floor, two additional bedrooms, (one the size of the primary below it), a third full bath, second laundry and exciting rooftop deck will delight the senses. The daylight walkout lower level accessed from within the home is a suite unto itself, with a full bedroom, sitting room, living room, laundry and full bath along with its own outside entrance.

Luxury market, meet momentum. Four properties sold this summer — all because of the amazing clients I get to work with

UK Sotheby’s International Realty announced this morning that it has launched a bespoke advisory service for American buyers in the UK’s prime residential market. I am leading it as a consultant to the Mayfair firm, while continuing as Executive Vice President at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty here in Washington.

The announcement ran this morning in PrimeResi, London’s trade journal of record for prime residential.

Here is why the advisory exists.

Americans are now UK Sotheby’s largest overseas client group — by transaction volume and by value. Beauchamp Estates puts US nationals at 30% of every sale above £5 million in prime central London this year, up from 20% at the end of 2025. In Mayfair, the American share of sales above £5 million is 50%.

That is not a trend. That is a market.

What that market has lacked is a broker on the American side of the table. The traditional structure is an international desk in London that receives inquiries and routes them. The advisory is the inverse: a single adviser who works for the buyer, and who knows what a Washington client actually needs to understand — how the money moves, where the tax exposure sits, what a 92-year lease means and what it costs to extend, why the survey matters more than the brochure.

I have been doing versions of this since 2016, when I showed One Hyde Park to a client from Washington.

Alex Isidro, Managing Director of UK Sotheby’s International Realty, put it this way in the announcement: the UK is firmly on the radar of American home seekers and investors, and the firm wanted someone who speaks the language of both markets.

Nothing changes in Washington. I am closing here, listing here, and living here. What has changed is that the work I have been doing informally since 2016 — advising Americans buying in London — now has a formal structure behind it, and the resources of Sotheby’s in Mayfair.

If you have been thinking about London, it is a short conversation. My line is open. 202-607-4000

Tomorrow: Andy Burnham’s proposal to replace stamp duty and council tax with an annual levy on property value — and what it would actually mean for an American buying in London.

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I land in London on July 1.

On Friday the 3rd, I’ll be at the Hurlingham Club for The Summer Social — UK Sotheby’s International Realty’s invitation-only gathering of private client advisers and industry professionals, with Enness Global, Lumley, Sytner, Capital Services Group, and IFX Payments. Three to four hundred of the people who quietly move the top of this market are in one room. It’s a working day, and a good one.

Then the Fourth of July with Sotheby’s UK — marking 250 years of American independence from the wrong side of the Atlantic, which has its own quiet comedy.

This is the first time I’m writing to you from London with Sotheby’s UK. I’ve shown property here since 2016; now I’m doing it properly, working with Americans buying in the city. 25% of all buyers in London are Americans. The Washington, D.C., business continues exactly as it always has. London is simply new ground with a new team.

If you’re in town this week, I want to see you. A drink, a coffee, a hello between meetings — I’m easy to find.

Jim

202-607-4000 (WhatsApp)

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The president abruptly canceled a signing ceremony at the Capitol on Wednesday, posting on social media that he would not act until lawmakers take up the SAVE America Act. The desk and presidential seal had already been set up in Statuary Hall. CBS News

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed both chambers with veto-proof majorities and restricts institutional investors from buying certain single-family homes. It becomes law within ten days regardless of whether Mr. Trump signs. The Hill + 2

He called the measure “of minor importance.” Republicans had planned to campaign on it this autumn. PBS

More to follow.

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So take this as a note from inside the building.

The FT’s worry is the right one. A frozen market — sales at a 30-year low, sellers locked into 3% mortgages, buyers locked out by 7% ones — is not thawed by hiding inventory from the people trying to buy it. It is thawed by price discovery. Private exclusives and “coming soon” listings do the opposite. They shrink the buyer pool, suppress the data buyers use to negotiate, and let the listing brokerage sit on both sides of the trade.

Here's the FT in full — worth the click:https://www.ft.com/content/8927eabf-3c0f-4a5a-bf13-ee6b99225742?syn-25a6b1a6=1

On Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.98% for the first time since 2022, according to Freddie Mac. CNN

The evidence is patchy on whether lower rates have meaningfully spurred more activity, as the Trump administration floats measures it says will make housing more affordable. NYT

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Month-over-month and year-over-year sales fell in all regions.

.“The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022. This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.”

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For more than 20 years, I’ve been quietly selling upper–bracket homes for some of the most visible people in the Washington region. No social media. No “just listed” blasts. Just private conversations, targeted outreach, and results.

Over the last week, a number of clients have started calling me “The House Whisperer,” pointing to my long‑standing reputation for a quiet, thoughtful approach to real estate for both buyers and sellers. I didn’t come up with the name, but it does describe how I’ve always chosen to work for the last 20 years.

So in 2026, I’m formalizing what I’ve done for decades: a discreet advisory role where I design and run whisper‑only campaigns for exceptional properties and the exceptional people who own them. It’s not a new strategy; it’s simply a clearer way to describe the way my practice already operates.

What that means in practice:

• Your home is never used as Social Media content or in the headlines of the local or national press.

• Communication happens directly with me via phone or text, and, when appropriate, through encrypted channels like Signal and WhatsApp.

• Buyers are curated through long‑standing personal and professional relationships in Washington, New York, the Southeast US, and London, UK– not through public feeds and open houses.

If you’re thinking about a move this year – or you simply want to understand how a whisper‑only campaign would work for your situation – reply to this email or text me, and we’ll set up a confidential conversation.

Warmly,

Jim Bell

202-607-4000

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The White House did not summon cameras for this one. There was no East Room backdrop, no carefully choreographed signing ceremony.

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Nestled on one of Kalorama’s most distinguished blocks, this stately 1908 Beaux-Arts townhome was designed by noted architect Frederick B. Pyle for department store magnate Samuel Woodward. Blending timeless elegance with thoughtful modern updates spanning four expansive levels, the residence offers four bedrooms and three-and-a-half baths across a floor plan designed for both grand entertaining and comfortable daily living. The entry level opens with a light-filled sitting room that flows into a gourmet kitchen, outfitted with striking marble counters, custom cabinetry, and space for casual, fireside dining.

Above, the Piano Nobile level - with soaring ceilings, two fireplaces, and magnificent French windows - provides a luminous backdrop for large-scale gatherings. Elegant entertaining rooms unfold in sequence, enriched by original moldings, trim, and south-facing exposures. A butler’s pantry with rear access to the kitchen completes this level. The third floor hosts the spacious primary suite, bathed in natural light and featuring a marble bath with dual showers, a custom dressing room, an adjoining office or sitting room and two more fireplaces. The top floor offers three additional bedrooms and two full baths, including one ensuite. A newly redesigned roof deck (2021) crowns the home with sweeping city views, perfect for al fresco entertaining. Recent updates include a new roof (2020), water heater (2024), and upper-zone AC (2020), along with a comprehensive security system. Seven fireplaces - five with gas inserts - add warmth and character throughout. Private rear parking (with EV charger) further enhances convenience, while the location places you within walking distance of Dupont Circle, Embassy Row, and Kalorama’s cafés and parks. 2131 Bancroft Place NW embodies the best of Kalorama - historic architecture elevated by refined, contemporary luxury, listed by Jonathan Taylor, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty.

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October is Breast Cancer Awareness month! Our goal throughout the month is to increase awareness of the disease and stress the importance of mammograms as the best tool to screen for breast cancer, the second most common type of cancer among women. Approximately one in eight women in the United States will get breast cancer during their lifetime and each year, more than 40,000 women die from breast cancer.-FDA

Scan the QR code to donate to Cancer.Donate.Org

Thank You!

Jim Bell

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