By Jim Bell | Billion Dollar Broker | October 26, 2026
Washington is quiet. With the midterms a week away, the city is waiting to see what November 3 brings.
It turns out London is waiting too.
I’m in London every month, and the Americans I work with there, whether executives, families, or longtime clients who now split their lives between the two cities, are watching this election as closely as anyone on Connecticut Avenue. Maybe more closely. When you live abroad, you see America the way the rest of the world sees it, and right now that view makes people uneasy.
What I’m Hearing.
The conversations are remarkably consistent. Over dinner in Chelsea, coffee near The Boltons, or a viewing in Hampstead, the same three concerns keep coming up.
Integrity more broadly. The questions about ethics in Washington, from the Qatari jet to the wider worries about who is buying influence and how, have landed hard abroad. Many of the Americans I speak with in London grew up believing the United States was the world’s standard-bearer. Several have told me, with real sadness, that they aren’t sure the rest of the world still sees it that way. They aren’t alone. A record 89% of Americans told Gallup that corruption is widespread in the US government. A Fox News poll found 88% of registered voters are extremely or very concerned about corruption in government. And the final CNBC All-America Economic Survey before the election found government corruption is now voters’ single most-cited issue, at 36%, just ahead of grocery prices.
Trade, and China in particular. Many of my London clients run businesses or sit on boards with real exposure to global supply chains. To them, tariffs and trade with China aren’t abstract headlines. They affect earnings, bonuses, and in the end how much house someone feels comfortable buying.
Election integrity. People ask me, quietly and seriously, whether the results will be accepted and whether the process will hold. These are not alarmists. They are sober professionals who have spent careers trusting American institutions, and they want to keep trusting them.
Many of these clients lean Democratic, but I’m hearing the same unease from traditional Republicans and independents. The mood I’m describing isn’t partisan anger. It’s closer to holding your breath and keeping your head down while you wait to see what the country decides.
How That Shows Up in Real Estate
Uncertainty doesn’t stop wealthy buyers. It makes them deliberate.
They’re hedging, not fleeing. American buyers in London aren’t dumping US assets. They’re diversifying, holding property in both cities and treating a London home as a second anchor rather than an escape hatch.
Quality and scarcity win. As in Georgetown and Kalorama, the best London homes in the best postcodes still find buyers. What’s struggling is anything that’s overpriced, compromised, or simply ordinary.
The country is calling. Some of the most interesting American activity isn’t in London at all. It’s in the Cotswolds, where Americans have become one of the most visible buyer groups in the honey-stone villages. On my recent visit to our Sotheby’s UK team there, the pattern was clear: buyers want space, privacy, a garden, and a slower pace, all within reach of London and Heathrow. A Cotswolds house is a refuge, not a retreat from the world, which suits a mood of keeping your head down. Timing is on hold, not off the table. A meaningful number of clients have told me they’re waiting until after November 3 before committing. Some have money ready to move. They want to see the outcome first.
The numbers back this up. Sotheby’s International Realty UK’s third-quarter 2026 report shows £491 million in total sales, with homes achieving an average of 94% of guide price. The firm has led prime central London sales above £2 million over both the last three and nine months, taking a 33% share of that market from January through September and 88% of sales above £15 million. Two figures stand out for this story: 69% of completed transactions went to international buyers, and 66% were paid in cash. Ready money is waiting, not hiding. And 61% of buyer introductions came through Sotheby’s global referral network. As the American Agent in London, I am proud of my Sotheby’s UK team.
What’s Really Moving the UK Market.
To be fair, British buyers, Americans included, may be less focused on the midterms than on two things much closer to home.
The Autumn Budget. Chancellor John Healey delivers his first Budget on Wednesday, October 28. Buyers want to see what it means for property and personal taxes before they commit.
Mortgage rates. UK fixed mortgages are priced off swap rates, and swaps have jumped. Two-year swaps rose about half a point in September alone, and the average five-year fixed mortgage hit 6% on October 5, its highest level since 2023. You can see the effect at the negotiating table. Buyers are making one offer and leaving it there rather than coming back a second time.
Underneath both is Iran. Before the war began in February, inflation and interest rates were trending down, and a Bank of England rate cut was seen as close to certain. 2026 looked like a good year. Instead, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up fuel prices, UK inflation is at its highest in almost a year, and economists expect the Bank to raise rates on November 5. Until there’s a lasting resolution in the Strait, rates are likely to stay stubbornly high, and that keeps this market slow.
Whether buyers say it out loud or not, a conflict Washington is managing is landing directly on London mortgage rates. The two cities are more connected than ever.
A Word for My London Colleagues
I haven’t written much about London lately, on purpose. Washington is home, and this is a season when Washington deserves my full attention.
But I want to say this clearly. The Sotheby’s International Realty teams in London and the Cotswolds are extraordinary. When an American family lands at Heathrow needing schools, neighborhoods, advisers, and a home, it’s this team that makes the transition work. They understand the British market, and they’re learning to understand American clients and how we think, worry, and decide. I’m proud to be their bridge.
Two Cities, One Breath
Washington and London are more alike this autumn than either would admit. Both cities are full of people with resources and options who are being careful with both. Both are waiting.
Whatever happens on November 3, the market will move again, because it always does. When it does, the clients who planned during the pause will be ready, and the ones who only waited won’t be.
So plan now. Hold your breath if you need to, but keep planning.
Jim Bell is a Sotheby’s International Realty executive in Washington, DC, and London.